Jordan Times
Tuesday, February 17, 2004

More required from gov't on development — CSS poll

By Alia Shukri Hamzeh

Although the government's performance thus far did not meet their expectations, they still expect the executive to eventually deliver on these issues.

According to an opinion poll released on Monday by the Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS), with the expectation of an imminent hike in prices of commodities, namely fuel/oil derivatives, tobacco, alcohol and other luxury items, an overwhelming majority of citizens believe that the government's reasons for increasing prices are unjustified and that a proposed JD5-10 raise in civil servants' salaries will not make up the difference.

The current poll surveyed two samples: The national sample which consists of 1,379 respondents and the public opinion leaders sample of 601 respondents including businessmen, political party and trade union leaders, intellectuals and statesmen.

The survey showed that 83.4 per cent of national sample respondents and 73.4 per cent of opinion leaders respondents agree that the government's reasons for the planned hike were unjustified. Nearly 91 per cent of the national sample and 88 per cent of the opinion leaders also agree that the proposed raise in civil servants' salaries will not cover the higher cost of living resulting from increased prices.

In addition, the poll showed that only eight per cent of respondents in the national sample and 15 per cent of the opinion leaders said that international aid and loans contributed to improving their family income.

Prime Minister Faisal Fayez's Cabinet remained around the level of expectations found in the formation poll which was conducted in early November 2003.

The present survey was conducted between Feb. 8-12 to evaluate the performance of Fayez's Cabinet since it was sworn in on Oct. 28. It is the latest in a series of polls that the CSS has conducted since 1996 as successive governments are sworn in and after their first 100 days, six months and one year in office, to gauge expectations first and then perceptions of performance by prime ministers and their teams.

Comparing previous surveys of national samples, the CSS found there is a gradual decrease in the percentage of respondents who believe governments have been capable of shouldering their responsibilities "to a great extent" during the first 100 days of their mandate.

At the same time, the centre found a marked increase in the percentage of respondents believing that governments were "unsuccessful" in undertaking their responsibilities.

Unlike the national sample, the opinion leaders' sample showed a gradual decline over the nine years since the polls have been conducted and a levelling off to around 11 per cent who said that the governments were unsuccessful in shouldering their responsibilities.

However, the present poll showed Fayez's government was the only one that did not record a decline in the percentage of people who indicated that the government was capable of shouldering its responsibilities.

Analysts attributed this result to the government starting off with lower expectations from both samples than previous governments.

Only 16.8 per cent of a national sample polled in November believed Fayez's government would be "successful to a great extent" in shouldering its responsibilities.

The poll also indicates that there is a persistent lack of confidence in successive governments' ability to "shoulder their responsibilities"

According to Fares Braizat, coordinator of the CSS Polling Unit, the declining confidence in governments could drop further if governments fail in taking measures that substantially stem poverty, unemployment and corruption.

Another main feature of the poll showed that respondents in the opinion leaders sample found that Fayez has been successful on the job (expectations increased from 68 per cent in November to 73.3 per cent in February), while his ministerial team's performance was waning (from 60 per cent to 53 per cent).

The national sample showed no significant change in its expectations of the premier's performance (it was 64 per cent in November and 63 per cent in February).

Turning to the economy, the average percentage on eight issues included in the arena of economic development dropped from an expectation of success of 48 per cent to 38 per cent since the government's formation among the national sample.

Opinion leaders' expectations were at an average of 50 per cent in November, and dropped to 42 per cent in February.

But, looking towards the future, the national sample is less pessimistic than the opinion leaders on economic issues (47 per cent of the national sample and 41 per cent of the opinion leaders said the government would eventually succeed in achieving economic development).

Responding to questions on the government's drive towards political development, both samples believe that the government has surpassed expectations on the issue of enhancing the role of women in political and social development. The national sample's expectations went from 66 per cent to 70 per cent, and the opinion leaders' went from 71 to 79.4 per cent.

The opinion leaders also believe that the government has surpassed expectations on the issue of enhancing democracy (63 per cent in November and 68.2 per cent in February).

Still, on average the expectations of the national sample for the government to succeed the eight issues regarding political development (such as delivering modern electoral and political parties legislation, and achieving judicial reform) dropped from 55 per cent in November to 45 per cent in February. But a slim majority (51 per cent) of respondents in the national sample expect the government to eventually succeed in achieving its goal of political development.

Similarly, the opinion leaders had high expectations of 60 per cent in November which dropped to 51 per cent in February. They are, unlike the national sample, pessimistic about the government reaching its political development aspirations.

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