Jordan Times
Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Public confidence in gov'ts declining — CSS
By Alia Shukri Hamzeh

AMMAN — Public trust in the ability of governments to tackle major issues such as poverty, unemployment, corruption and improving living standards is gradually declining, reflecting what observers believe is a “confidence gap.”

According to a poll released Monday by the Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan, there is a gradual decline in the percentage of respondents who believe that governments will be successful in shouldering their responsibilities.

The poll also reveals that the number of those who believe that governments would not be successful in accomplishing the tasks at hand is increasing.

Analysts attribute what they describe as a “confidence crisis” in the making, to the fact that the majority of the general public feels that the past consecutive governments have been unable to improve their living standards. According to the CSS poll, 79.5 per cent of citizens say they have not felt any positive impact on their living standards over the past three years despite the fact that official statistics indicate an economic growth of 4-7 per cent of the gross domestic product.

Monday's poll is the latest in a series conducted by the CSS since 1996 as successive governments are sworn in and after their first 100 days, six months and one year in office. The polls are meant to measure expectations first and then perceptions of performance by prime ministers and their teams among opinion leaders and the general public.

According to the poll, popular expectations that the 10-day-old government of Adnan Badran will be successful in shouldering its responsibility are lower than the expectations of the past six governments. Comparing results from 1996 when the government of Abdul Karim Kabariti was formed up to Badran's government, the poll shows a 20-point drop in people's expectations of success for each government. In 1996, 82 per cent of respondents said they believed Kabariti would be successful in shouldering his responsibility, while presently 62 per cent believe that Badran would be successful. The public's opinion of the ministerial teams have shown nearly parallel and therefore declining percentages.

“People are losing confidence gradually in successive governments because they cannot see that these governments are delivering especially on major economic issues,” said CSS pollster Fares Braizat.

The poll shows that only 15.6 per cent of the national sample polled by the CSS between April 11-15 believed that the new 26-member government would be “greatly” successful in shouldering its responsibilities, while 38 per cent had expressed the same optimism in Kabariti's government.

Optimists upon the formation of the governments of Faisal Fayez, in November 2003, Ali Abul Ragheb, in June 2000, Abdur-Ra'uf S. Rawabdeh, in March 1999, Fayez Tarawneh, in August 1998, Abdul Salam Majali, in March 1997, and Kabariti, in February 1996, were estimated by the CSS at 16.8, 31.5, 43.6, 26, 42.2 and 38 per cent.

Confidence among the CSS opinion leaders sample dropped by 3.2 points, from 30 per cent indicating optimism when Kabariti's government was formed to 26.8 per cent for the current Badran government. But opinion leaders remained less “pessimistic” than the general public on the government's ability to shoulder its responsibilities.

The Badran government, sworn-in on April 8, is being portrayed as a reformist Cabinet that will advance long-awaited political, social and economic development plans.

But according to the poll, a majority of opinion leaders — who include senior officials, journalists, political party and professional association leaders — and the national sample feel the government would be unable to tackle major economic afflictions such as poverty and unemployment, improve living standards and provide citizens with equal opportunities. However, around half of those surveyed in both samples believe the government would be able to stomp out corruption.

Among the national sample, 35 per cent believe the government will be successful in fighting poverty, whereas 41 per cent believe it will successfully combat unemployment, 48 per cent believe it will stomp out corruption. Opinion leaders expressed similar percentages in the government's ability to fight poverty and unemployment (34 and 38 per cent), and 53 per cent were confident that it will combat corruption.

Analysts believe the percentages reflect pessimism among the general public that prevalent economic woes will be alleviated. They said the incorporation of a strong economic team led by Finance Minister Bassem Awadallah in the Badran government reflected no raised optimism.

According to the CSS survey, both the national sample and opinion leaders were slightly optimistic about the government's capability to accelerate belated political reforms. A total of 54 per cent of respondents from both samples believed the government would be able to move ahead with political reform. Among the national sample, 57 per cent believed the government would be able to strengthen free expression by giving room to opposing opinions, whereas 64 per cent of opinion leaders believed the same.

On foreign policy, opinion leaders were more optimistic than the national sample about the government's capability to achieve its goals. Three quarters of opinion leaders polled or 77 per cent believe the government would be capable of building constructive and even ties with neighbouring Arab states, whereas 68 per cent of the national sample think it is capable of doing so.

The optimism in governments' foreign policy is attributed to the fact that it is more linked to His Majesty King Abdullah rather than the performance of consecutive governments.

One of the main reasons seen behind the fall of the Fayez government was that it fell prey to Arab criticism for its proposal to the Algiers summit and its recent diplomatic tensions with Iraq.

The poll also showed that the Kingdom's southern region was the least optimistic of the country's three regions about the success of the government in handling its responsibilities. Among respondents from the southern region (Karak, Tafileh, Maan, Aqaba) 40 per cent expected the ministerial team would not be successful or slightly succeed in carrying out their tasks, followed by 34 per cent from the central region (Amman, Zarqa, Balqa and Madaba) and 27 per cent from the northern region (Irbid, Mafraq, Jerash and Ajloun).

Days following the Badran Cabinet formation, a group of Lower House deputies issued a statement declaring they would withhold confidence in the government, saying they had been marginalised in the deliberations to compose the Cabinet.

Badran's government is the fourth to serve since King Abdullah ascended the Throne in 1999. It includes four women and 12 ministers who served in the previous Cabinet of Fayez.


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