Jordan Times
Monday, June 12, 2006
Jordan’s security
boosted by Zarqawi’s demise — analysts
By Paul Tate
AMMAN — The prospect of further large-scale
terrorist attacks in Jordan has been significantly reduced as a result of the
death of Al Qaeda frontman in Iraq Abu Mussab Zarqawi, analysts said on Sunday.
The Jordanian-born militant was killed late Wednesday after two US F16s dropped
a pair of 500lb bombs on his safe house in Hibhib, a village 48km northeast of
Baghdad.
“Zarqawi’s demise is definitely positive for Jordan as he had a long-standing
grudge against the regime and was heavily involved in planning and staging
attacks in the country, said Joost Hiltermann, the Middle East project director
of International Crisis Group.
In addition to leading scores of bombing campaigns in Iraq, Zarqawi was a strong
proponent of spreading the jihad to neighbouring countries, as evidenced by his
hand in masterminding the November 2005 triple suicide bombings in Amman.
The attacks against three of the capital’s hotels left 60 people dead and around
a hundred injured.
In an Internet statement following the bombings, Zarqawi threatened more attacks
and denounced Jordan as a land “crawling with American and Zionist spies.”
“Zarqawi’s grudge against the Monarchy dates back to the late 1980s when he
returned radicalised from the jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan,”
Hiltermann said.
On returning to Jordan, Zarqawi attempted to form a jihadi cell which ended in
failure when authorities broke up his group after an unsuccessful attempt to
attack Israeli targets. He was sent to prison only to be released in a Royal
amnesty in 1999.
“Of all the neighbouring countries, Jordan will benefit most from the news that
Zarqawi is no longer active,” according to political analyst and Al Ghad
columnist Muhammad Abu Rumman.
“Iraq gave Zarqawi the perfect training and recruiting ground to export the
jihad here. Although he was based in Iraq, there is no doubt that his eyes were
always fixed on his homeland,” Abu Rumman said.
Hiltermann said the likelihood of Zarqawi’s followers in Jordan carrying out
attacks in emulation or support of their slain leader was minimal, adding that
although local followers have the technical know-how they have been thoroughly
infiltrated by the security forces.
“The chances now of large- scale Al Qaeda synchronised attacks has been greatly
reduced with the end of Zarqawi. If there are attacks by his followers here
seeking to emulate him they are much more likely to be sporadic, low-key and
unorganised,” said Hilterman.
Fares Braizat, from the University of Jordan’s Centre for Strategic Studies,
agreed that the threat to Jordan came from Zarqawi’s ability to use Iraq as a
base for his wider struggle.
“His ability to recruit experienced and battle-hardened foreign militants posed
a serious threat to Jordan’s security, as evidenced by the four Iraqis who
carried out the November attacks, said Braizat.
Analysts agreed that the new Al Qaeda leardership in Iraq is now much more
likely to be focussed on finding a new leader, which may lead to an internal
power struggle.
The organisation will also be seeking to show that they have not been affected
by the loss of their leader, a position that will translate into an increase in
attacks on coalition forces, according to Braizat.
Hiltermann, however, sounded a note of caution.
“We shouldn’t jump the gun and need to wait and see who the new leader is going
to be. If the leader turns out to be another Jordanian then the country may well
remain the frame for some time to come.”