Jordan Times
Friday, July 14, 2006
Iraq’s breakup would
prove disastrous for Jordan — ICG
By Grace Peacock
AMMAN — If Iraq’s struggle with sectarian
violence, a growing insurgency and a dysfunctional government breaks the country
apart, the result will be disastrous for Jordan and other countries in the
region.
This was the message delivered this week by Joost Hiltermann, Middle East
project director for the International Crisis Group (ICG) at a lecture hosted by
the World Affairs Council (WAC).
“The situation in Iraq is indeed grave. The country is deteriorating and it’s
not getting better, it’s getting much worse. I don’t know if Iraq as a
nation-state will continue to exist,” he said to about 50 people gathered at WAC
headquarters.
“It’s a weak government that has no real security forces, a problematic
Constitution and violence erupting out of sectarian conflict and insurgency.
This combination is fatal for Iraq unless steps are taken to remedy the
situation,” he added.
Hiltermann explained that if Iraq disintegrates and the opportunity for
partitioning arises, it would plunge the area into an even greater conflict as
nations would fight for the spoils.
“There would be a fight between Iran and other countries over the dead body of
Iraq. In that kind of situation there would be no winners,” he said.
One of the main challenges facing the country, according to Hiltermann, include
the Sunni-Shiite sectarian conflict that was propelled by Al Qaeda’s late front
man in Iraq, Jordanian-born Abu Mussab Zarqawi. Groups of insurgents are
currently targeting and killing Shiites while some government commando units
carry out reprisals against the Sunni Arab community, creating a vicious circle
of death and revenge.
“The news I’ve been hearing now is that there are some serious discriminate
killings happening at checkpoints where people are being picked out and executed
on the basis of their name on their identity card,” he said.
The escalating violence and growing Shiite influence has become a great concern
to Jordan. In ICG’s report “The Next Iraqi War? Sectarianism and Civil
Conflict,” His Majesty King Abdullah warned that if Iraq were to be controlled
by pro-Iranian parties there could be a “crescent” of dominant Shiite movements
and governments encircling Jordan, stretching from Lebanon, through Syria, Iran
and Iraq to the Gulf.
But Hiltermann believes Iran’s influence in the region has been exaggerated and
the country doesn’t have as much support within Iraq as people believe.
He also said the division between Shiites, Sunni Arabs and the Kurdish community
in Iraq has been made worse by last year’s “failed constitution.” Not only did
its drafting process marginalise Sunni Arabs from the negotiations, but it also
includes in its text “the break up of Iraq along sectarian lines and allows for
a loose form of confederation of groups... that cannot survive together as a
single nation,” he said.
There have been some positive developments. The death of Zarqawi and the efforts
of the new US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad to tempt the disaffected Sunni
Arab community back into the political process have helped the situation
somewhat. But Hiltermann says the only way to “put humpty dumpty back together
again” is to establish a government of genuine national unity, to change the
constitution to provide a stronger prescription for federalism and halt
sectarian-based attacks and human rights abuses by security forces.
Despite this, a recent ICG report on Iraq warns neighbouring states to start
“planning for the contingency that Iraq will fall apart, so as to contain the
inevitable fallout on regional stability and security.”
Fakhry Abu Shakra, WAC executive director, shared Hiltermann’s grim outlook.
“No one knows where it [Iraq] is going, and every time there is a glimmer of
hope - it is broken,” he said.
The lively question and answer session that followed the lecture inspired Shakra
to try to organise a larger WAC seminar about the challenges facing Iraq.
“The hot topics right now are Palestine and Iraq. If you’re not talking about
one, it’s the other. But this is what [WAC] is here for — to provide a free
forum for people to discuss the important issues of the region.”
WAC in Amman is a non-profit, nonpartisan organisation devoted to engaging the
public in a discussion of world issues. ICG is an independent, nonprofit,
nongovernmental organisation whose staff conduct field-based analysis and
high-level advocacy to help prevent and resolve deadly conflict.