Jordan Times
Tuesday, July 21, 2004

Drought causes lowest wheat harvest in 6 years
By Khalid Dalal


AMMAN — Wheat farmers, government officials and agricultural experts may differ on many issues, but all of them appear to agree on one thing: 2004 is a bad year for wheat production.

Out of the 3.5 million dunums of arable land in the Kingdom, 850,000 dunums are planted annually with wheat. This year the country is expected to produce a mere 10,000 tonnes of wheat, the lowest for six years, according to Jordan Farmers Union (JFU) Chairman Sharary Shakhanbeh.

This will be an unwelcome reminder for the country's 115,000 wheat farmers of their nightmare in 1999, when production levels reached just 12,000 tonnes in the aftermath of a severe drought, which caused huge damage to many crops, especially in the southern parts of the Kingdom. Since the 1999 drought, wheat production has increased steadily, with levels in 2000 and 2001 respectively totalling 28,000 and 24,000 tonnes, according to government statistics. This trend accelerated in 2002 and 2003, when farmers succeeded in tripling production levels with the total amounts for the two years reaching 74,000 and 69,500 tonnes respectively. The low harvest prediction for 2004 is therefore a serious setback for farmers, and a reminder of how vulnerable they remain on seasonal rainfall patterns.

According to the National Centre for Agricultural Research Technology Transfer (NCARTT), the increase in wheat production from 1999 to 2003 is directly related to increased levels of rainfall throughout this period. Rainfall increased from 130-185 millimetres (30 per cent of the seasonal average) in 1999, to 800 millimetres in 2003 (90 per cent of the seasonal average). In 2004, however, not only the level of rainfall declined to 250 millimetres (around 40 per cent of the seasonal average), but also the Kingdom has experienced no rainfall since Feb. 27. This situation has been made worse by the two successive heat waves experienced during the past two months, according to Abdul Nabi Fardous, director general of NCARTT. “This is the first time in 30 years we have had no rainfall after February. This is a disaster for farmers planting wheat,” Fardous explained.

In order to ensure good wheat production, added Fardous, “you need rain to continue falling until late April or early May. This is the main reason behind the good harvest in 2003.”

Scientifically speaking, he said, 2004 should be considered a drought year, especially in the central and southern governorates.

Shakhanbeh agreed, indicating that so far this year, many wheat farmers are expected to lose around 80 per cent of their harvest. The harvest time continues until early next month.

The JFU official urged the government to repeat the steps taken in 1999, when a state of drought was declared, to help farmers overcome their losses.

“Declaring a state of drought will help the government obtain assistance from concerned international authorities such as the Food and Agriculture Organisation,” he said. “And from previous years' experiences,” he continued, “the government might resort to reschedule farmers' debts, offer new loans and exempt them from some interest on loans.”

Although such measures would be appreciated, wheat farmers like the 65-year-old Khalil Muslim expressed concerns that they still fail to address their immediate problems, which are the direct losses incurred as a result of drought.

“I am expecting to lose around JD1,000. This maybe a small amount of money for many people, but for a small farmer like me it is a disaster,” said Muslim, a father of 10 from Al Samik area, 30 kilometres south of Amman.

According to a statement by Ministry of Agriculture Secretary General Awni Taameh, “the ministry has submitted a report to the government concerning the drought situation and the losses farmers will incur and is currently awaiting an answer.”

A government official, however, who declined to be named, explained that other factors need to be taken into consideration and that providing farmers with compensation is not a straightforward issue. As part of Jordan's commitment to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), signed in 1999, the country is not permitted to provide wheat farmers with cash compensation as it directly contravenes Jordan's obligations, explained the official.

However, there are several measures the government can take to help farmers whilst remaining in compliance with WTO rules. In Europe and the US, farmers receive government assistance by indirect subsidies, such as providing farmers with seeds, reducing water rates and other free input subsidies. “If the damage this year is too much, the government should do the same,” he added.

One of the measures already taken by the government to assist wheat farmers is purchasing their wheat at what the Agriculture Ministry described as higher prices compared to international markets.

“While the government is buying local wheat at JD200 per tonne, the prices of US and Syrian wheat, for example, stand at JD170 and JD137 per tonne,” said Taameh. In addition to the US and Syria, Jordan imports wheat, annual demand estimated at 650,000 to 700,000 tonnes, from Australia, Europe, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Argentina, India, Turkey and Canada.

However, a policy of buying only what the farmers will produce is far from satisfactory for Abu Azzam, 52, a wheat farmer from Madaba Governorate who is currently indebted to the banks to the tune of JD70,000.

“I need the government to compensate me for the loss I will incur otherwise my debts will grow to a point where I am no longer able to repay them,” he complained, whilst drinking his breakfast tea in his 450-dunum farm.

Hakam Nabulsi, another farmer who owns a 1,000-dunum farm in Husban area on the southern outskirts of Amman, expected his wheat sales in 2004 to generate around JD10,000. “This amount will not even cover the production and transport costs,” he explained. “In good years, each dunum planted with wheat should generate 300 kilogrammes, but I am only expecting 50 kilogrammes per dunum this year. My 1,000 dunums used to generate a profit of JD60,000 at least.”

For Abu Azzam and Nabulsi, however, planting and harvesting wheat is not just a business but a way of life they inherited from their fathers and grandfathers. “We inherited it. It is in our blood,” they explained.

So, no matter whether 2005 is a drought year or not, both are determined to plant wheat again. And as they stand and look up at the clear blue skies, both are hoping that next year the nature will not be stingy. “Let it be Ya Allah,” prayed both.


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