Washington Post, January 30, 2004, A21
Building a Wall, Breaking a Relationship
Washington Post Interview with
Dr. Muasher
By David Ignatius
Israel's plan to build a security fence inside the West Bank is beginning to
bulldoze its friendly relationship with neighboring Jordan, which for decades
has been one of its few reliable Arab partners.
With Israel under continuing assault from suicide bombers (such as the terrorist
who attacked a Jerusalem bus yesterday, killing at least 11 people), Prime
Minister Ariel Sharon has pressed ahead with his plans for the barrier. Sharon
argues that if the Palestinians won't control the suicide bombers, then Israel
must take unilateral steps to protect itself -- including the fence.
But to Israel's consternation, Jordan has taken a leading role in opposing the
barrier. The Jordanian foreign minister, Marwan Muasher, told his country's
parliament on Jan. 21: "Construction of the wall would kill every
opportunity for a viable Palestinian state." He said it would pose a
"direct threat . . . to Jordanian national security because it might revive
the transfer option [of Palestinians to Jordan] despite all Israeli assertions
to the contrary."
Sharon has warned Jordan to keep quiet. He blamed the Hashemite kingdom for
"leading" the campaign against the wall and said it had "much to
lose in [a] worsening of its relations with Israel" if it continued with
its anti-wall campaign. Jordan countered that it wouldn't be intimidated by
Sharon's threats. As the bickering continued, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan
Shalom canceled a visit to Amman planned for this week.
Muasher explained in a telephone interview that Jordan fears that the barrier,
by undermining a viable Palestinian state, may revive the "Jordanian
option." That argument, which was often made by right-wing Israeli
politicians in the early 1980s, held that there was no need to create a
Palestinian state because one already existed in Jordan, where a majority of the
population is Palestinian.
"We are afraid that the day might come when Israeli leaders might argue
'Jordan is Palestine,' " Muasher said. "Why are we worried?" he
went on. "The wall will effectively divide the West Bank into three parts.
It will make life impossible for Palestinians: dividing them from their work,
their schools, their lands. If that happens, what options do Palestinians have?
They will leave, voluntarily or by force, for Jordan."
The Israel-Jordan dispute will sharpen soon, as Jordan takes its case to the
International Court of Justice in The Hague. The Jordanians argue that the wall
is illegal under international law because it is being built on territory that
Israel occupied after the 1967 war. Israel is sure to have legal
counterarguments, and the court's ruling won't be binding. But the legal
skirmish is a sign of how this once-close relationship has begun to spin out of
control.
The Jordanians could escalate the quarrel further by contending that the wall,
by pushing Palestinians into Jordan, constitutes a breach of the 1994 peace
treaty with Israel. Muasher won't go that far, but he does affirm: "We have
a peace treaty with Israel. It states that transfer of population is
forbidden."
Ali Shukri, a retired Jordanian general who was one of King Hussein's closest
advisers, cautions, "You don't wake up a sleeping giant against you."
He's worried about the rising danger on both sides of Jordan, from Israelis and
Palestinians to the west and a splintering Iraqi state to the east.
The flap over the wall is another sign that the status quo over the Palestinian
problem cannot continue. Yesterday's suicide bombing, the first inside Israel
since Dec. 25, will reignite Israeli anger that no mix of carrots or sticks has
been able to stop the terror. In this environment, even Sharon seems unsure what
to do -- other than build a wall to keep the bombers out.
Sharon's problem is that the Palestinian issue is leaching away Israel's
security -- not militarily, but politically and strategically. Most Israelis
want a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians that will allow Israel to
become part of a thriving Mediterranean community. But as long as they continue
to occupy the West Bank and dot it with settlements, the Israelis will have
increasing trouble getting along with even their famously accommodating
neighbors, the Jordanians.
And where is the Bush administration, as this potentially dangerous rift
develops between two key strategic allies in the Middle East? Given its track
record in dealing with the Palestinian issue, it's right where you would expect:
sitting on its hands.
The administration's lack of forceful diplomacy on the Palestinian issue is
unfair most of all to the Israelis. This problem isn't going away. The options
for all sides are getting more unpalatable by the month, and the security fence
plan is making things worse. The United States should press Israel to find more
positive ways to achieve security.