The Intifada and the unflagging occupation of the
Palestinian territories has left the region in a permanent state of frustration
and dismay. Images of violence and bloodshed that Arabs witness everyday
exacerbates the tensions between the people and the state, creating discontent,
a sense of hopelessness and frustration. Further, this discontent is creating a
remarkable convergence between Arab nationalism and Islamism, which substitutes
the need for democracy for many groups. The Arabic streets have been severely
shaken by events in the Palestinian territories, however, the banners are not
calling for reform or liberalization, but rather for victory in the name of God.
As for Iraq and in contrast to the predominant
view in Washington, many in the Middle East, as well as in North America believe
that the effects of the war will be largely devastating, at least in the short
term. The horrors of war will regenerate anger and discontent in the Arab world
as people become mere spectators, with no say in the their own future. If the
outcome of a war on Iraq is chaos and further instability, it will not offer a
model for success for others to follow in the region and the US will be held
responsible for a new case of dramatic failure. In the long term, however and
depending on the outcome, the war could possibly generate a call for democracy
in the region. Iraq will surely be the litmus test for US involvement in the
Arab World beyond conflict and war towards peace and democracy.
The third set of factors that hinder the process
of democratization in the Arab world fall in the domestic structure of the Arab
states. Firstly, the Arab world today remains strongly authoritarian and is
quintessentially antithetical to democracy. Secondly, the growth of radical
political Islam coupled with non-ideological forces such as tribalism and the
patriarchal political culture in society and state have derailed the evolution
of democracy. The majority of the Arab peoples find material and psychological
comfort in the prevalent religious groups and organizations. Their needs are met
by religion, mainly Islam, as well as tribal affiliations. Therefore, there is
no overwhelmingly vocal sentiment calling for political inclusion, freedom of
expression or an enhanced civil society. Moreover, whenever democratic processes
blossom, Islamist and tribal forces dominate the outcome, which in turn reflects
the sentiments and political orientation of Arab citizens.
Thirdly, the politics of economic reform and
structural adjustment, together with the novel trend of economic and political
privatization, have had negative repercussions on political and social reform.
Despite the general benefits these economic reforms have offered, there were no
marked improvements in the life of the average Arab citizen. Moreover, the oil
dominated rentier nature of most economies in the Arab world proved a to be a
hindrance for democracy.
Lastly, the lack of democracy in the Arab World
could be attributed to a sense of passivity among its citizens. The Arab Street
has not been as vocal about democracy, as it is expected to be. People are more
concerned with their economic well-being and as long as they feel comfortable
under the current system they feel there is no compelling need for
democratization.
Democracy: a magical remedy?
Finding a suitable democratic model that would
fit the Arab world is a serious challenge today. Democracy cannot be presented
to the Arab people as a magical solution.
Firstly, Democratization processes must be
reconsidered to fit the Arab model within the context of regional conflict there
is no such thing possible as "democratization beyond regional
conflict" in the Arab World. Democracy must be revisited and ‘arabized’
before it is presented to the people.
Secondly, one must listen to what the Arabs are
saying in order to create and promote appropriate cultural institutions and
encourage pluralism, diversity and tolerance. The Arab states must also
encourage political participation and dissent and establish the rule of law on
which human rights mechanisms could be based.
Thirdly, the United States for its part needs to
study the region carefully and keep in mind that there are no short-cuts to
democratic transition and that a war on Iraq is not the key to democracy. The
Arab world in the post-Iraq period will be very fragile and there will be
ambivalence for democracy, making the US role more complex. The current dialogue
between the US and the Arab governments is important but insufficient because
government policies in the Arab World are often seen by citizens as extensions
of US politics.
