Jordan Times
Wednesday, January 15, 2003

Iraq will be attacked; no Palestine state in 3 years — CSS poll

By Francesca Sawalha

These are amongst the major results of the first independent poll conducted in the Arab world to gauge public opinion on the Iraqi crisis.

The poll, released yesterday by the Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS) of the University of Jordan, also measured the popularity of Prime Minister Ali Abul Ragheb's government, showing that its approval ratings are sliding.

The CSS also sought to assess the general impact of “Jordan First” — a national campaign recently launched by His Majesty King Abdullah as a prelude to political reforms and a leitmotif for this spring's parliamentary polls. Three quarters of Jordanians have heard of the motto, but only 16 per cent of them also know of the existence of a document for the actual translation of “Jordan First” into actual legislative, administrative, judicial and social reforms, CSS figures showed. The CSS said the poll, conducted on a national sample, has a three per cent margin of error.

A war for oil and Israel

Amongst the 1,373 citizens surveyed, 58 per cent expected the US to strike Iraq, 24 per cent believed that will not happen and 17 per cent said they were uncertain or did not know.

Amongst those certain that Iraq will be hit, 61 per cent believed the US will forge ahead with a military campaign on its own, whereas 39 per cent thought the attack would come under a UN resolution.

Asked about Washington's reasons for the strike, the greatest majority of respondents cited a desire to control Iraqi oil (83 per cent) and eliminate potential threats to Israel's security (63 per cent).

Iraq's alleged possession of weapons of mass destruction was listed as the third reason for a possible US attack (28 per cent), whereas bringing democracy to the Arab world and punishing Iraq for alleged links with Al Qaeda were both mentioned by nine per cent of respondents.

“These figures indicate that people don't buy US arguments,” noted CSS Director Mustafa Hamarneh. “The impact of the US' post-Sept. 11 media campaign has been very minor,” Hamarneh added, commenting on the high percentage of respondents linking a possible Iraq war to Washington's perceived desire to either control the flow of Iraqi oil or protect Israel, and not to Iraq's alleged unconventional arsenal, nor to Osama Ben Laden's Al Qaeda.

The almost totality of respondents (98 per cent) concurred that a military strike against Iraq would have negative repercussions on Jordan, mostly at the economic level (53 per cent).

Fewer Jordanians expected a possible war to have an adverse impact on political life (16 per cent), socially and psychologically (15 per cent), on national security and stability (6 per cent), and at the demographic level (5 per cent), in case of an influx of refugees.

Sixty-nine per cent said Jordan would not provide any support to any alliance against Baghdad, 10 per cent said Jordan would extend some kind of support, 20 per cent did not know.

A greatest majority of interviewees (87 per cent) declared their opposition to any support for a military strike on Iraq, whereas 9 per cent replied they did not know, two per cent declined to answer, and another two per cent said Jordan should extend assistance to a military campaign.

Distrust of Israel

Jordanians appear skeptical as to the possibility that a three-year deadline for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state will be kept.

The CSS survey showed that expectations on the actual materialization of a Palestinian state varied only little, given the two scenarios of a victory of the Likud Party of Ariel Sharon or the Labor Party of Amram Mitzna in the Jan. 28 elections.

Seventy-eight per cent of respondents said they did not expect the establishment of Palestinian state within the next three years if Sharon wins the elections.

Sixty-seven per cent said they did not expect a Palestinian state to be established by 2005 if Mitzna wins the elections.

“There is a slight difference in perception depending on which party wins the elections, but it is not significant,” Hamarneh commented.

A road map for Mideast peace being championed by the US and being drafted by a so-called quartet for the Middle East — US, EU, UN and Russia — envisages the end of Israeli occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state by 2005.

Endorsement of the road map by the quartet has been put off until after the Israeli elections.

`Jordan First'

According to the survey, more than three quarters of Jordanians have heard of the “Jordan First” national campaign, and 86 per cent of them like it.

Respondents, however, expressed different views on the meanings and goals of the drive, officially launched by King Abdullah with a letter to the prime minister on Oct. 9.

For 34 per cent of them, “Jordan First” meant essentially protecting and advancing the national interest, 10 per cent said the motto was a call for development, seven per cent said it meant mainly strengthening the domestic front, seven per cent said it meant advancing national welfare. One per cent said the motto meant public interest should overrule private interests, one per cent said it meant Jordan was faring better than other countries in certain areas, another one per cent said it was a call for isolationism.

Nineteen per cent of the interviewees said “Jordan First” had no meaning for them, whereas seven per cent did not answer.

Those who heard of or read the document prepared by a Royally-appointed commission for the implementation of “Jordan First” amounted to 16 per cent of the respondents, while 77 per cent said they were unaware of the document.

The Royal Commission on “Jordan First” presented a set of recommendations to the King on Dec. 18. The document prepared by the 31-strong committee suggested the introduction of a parliamentary quota for women, the establishment of a constitutional court, far-reaching amendments to the 1992 Political Parties Law, as well as the reform of school and university curricula.

The commission also suggested to activate Parliament's self-monitoring and checks-and-balances mechanisms, address “the inadequacy in the training of judges,” encourage mergers amongst political parties, and raise the ceiling of public freedoms in general, and press freedoms in particular.

In yesterday's poll, respondents aware of the document agreed that “Jordan First” was aimed at encouraging citizens to participate more actively in political (68 per cent) or socioeconomic (77 per cent) development, or both (nine per cent).

Commenting on the seemingly lack of awareness on the “Jordan First” document, Hamarneh recalled earlier surveys conducted by the CSS, indicating apathy or lack of interest in major national news, such as a new elections law, or a multimillion bank fraud case involving illustrious figures.

“In our analysis, the fact that citizens are not aware of the [“Jordan First”] document calls for a review of the media policy,” said Hamarneh, himself a member of the Royal Commission that drafted the document.

Gov't popularity slides

Yesterday's poll was the latest in a series of surveys conducted regularly over the past six years by the CSS to gauge the approval ratings of successive governments.

CSS polls — a unique feature of political research in the Arab world — seek to assess public expectations and perceptions of governments' performance, periodically recording their popularity rates since they are sworn in.

Compared to the previous six polls on the popularity of Abul Ragheb's government since its formation, in June 2000, the percentage of respondents considering the premier “successful to a large extent” has steadily declined.

From 23 per cent two-and- a-half years ago, it is now 15 per cent.

In parallel, CSS figures show an increase in the number of interviewees answering “don't know”: From 13 per cent in June 2000, to 34 per cent in yesterday's poll.

“The government's approval rating went down, a downward trend has always been there,” noted Hamarneh.

“But most people who have withdrawn their approval seem to have joined the ranks of the “don't knows,” they are not disapproving of the government,” he added.

Fifteen per cent of respondents said Abul Ragheb had been successful to a large extent, 11 per cent said he had not been successful, 34 per cent answered they were not sure, 30 per cent thought Abul Ragheb had been relatively successful, eight per cent deemed him successful to a small degree.

Of those who declared the premier successful, 19 per cent praised his performance in the economy, nine per cent cited improvements in local services, another nine per cent appreciated his political stands and seven per cent liked the way in which he tackled national issues.

Of those who deemed the premier not successful, 34 per cent complained of a regression in living standards, 36 per cent cited a “lack of achievements,” two per cent mentioned the phenomenon of “wasta” (favoritism and nepotism), five per cent said he had displayed “weak management.”