Jordan Times, October 12, 2006

CSS poll shows 84% of Lebanese agree war attempt to impose Middle East order

AMMAN (JT) — A poll released on October 11, 2006 showed 84 per cent of Lebanese agree that the Israel-Lebanon war was a consequence of a joint Israel-US attempt to impose a Middle East order.

But respondents to the survey differ along religious lines over the conflict’s winners and losers.

A majority of those surveyed thought the war was initiated by Israel and the US, countries that maintain firm political ties, in an effort to reshape the region into a “new Middle East,” while only 13 per cent of respondents disagreed.

Showing a consensus opinion over who initiated the fighting, the study, conducted by the Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS) at the University of Jordan, also revealed that Lebanon’s numerous religious sects diverge over who emerged successfully and unsuccessfully from the war.

Seventy per cent of Shiites, the religious group most affected by the violence, said Hizbollah came out as the winner against Israel. In contrast, only 36 per cent of Sunnis and 19 per cent of Christians thought Hizbollah won.

Among the Druze, a religious community residing in the Chouf Mountains, 82 per cent believed Lebanon was the biggest loser. The Christians follow closely behind at 73 per cent.

“The Druze are basically a united bloc. They blame the Syrians and the Iranians for the war,” said Mohammad Masri, a fellow at the CSS, which periodically conducts surveys in the region. The Shiites also presented a unified opinion, he said, but they instead “sided with Hizbollah and blame the American-Israeli idea of a ‘new Middle East’ for starting the conflict”.

Differences across religious lines were also highlighted over Hizbollah’s capture of two Israeli soldiers — which was one of the events that sparked the six-week war. The majority of Shiites agreed that Hizbollah’s capture of the soldiers was justified while alternatively, the majority of Druze disagreed.

Stuck in the middle of these two groups were the Christians and Sunnis, who appear more divided about their opinions of the conflict.

“There tend to be multiple poles of opinions among these two groups,” Masri said, referring to internal disputes between rival political figures in each of the religious groups.

Taken as a whole, half of all Lebanese believed that Lebanon came out as the biggest loser and 37 per cent say Israel came out on the bottom. But, surprisingly, 78 per cent believe that the war would have happened whether Hizbollah captured the Israeli soldiers or not. According to Masri, this means “that the majority of Lebanese society was not harshly blaming Hizbollah for the war because they believed it would have happened anyway”.

The poll sample of 1,200 Lebanese included Druze, Christians, Shiites and Sunnis. The margin of error was 2-3 per cent. The survey did not break down Lebanon’s Christian communities into their separate denominations.

The July 12 to August 14 conflict claimed roughly 1,500 lives, mostly Lebanese civilians, displaced at least one million Lebanese, and cost the country billions of dollars in damaged infrastructure. Hizbollah and Israel accuse each other of committing war crimes.