The
public's leading concern arising from a possible conflict is that Iraq
will deploy chemical or biological weapons against U.S. forces; six-in-ten
(59%) say they worry a great deal about this. A 52% majority expresses
concern about the general prospect of heavy military casualties. And
compared with the first Persian Gulf War, many more Americans fear a
conflict with Iraq will raise the risk of terrorism in the United States.
Half (51%) express that concern now, compared with just a third in late
January 1991, after the Gulf War began.
As in previous surveys, support for using force against Iraq declines
markedly in the absence of allied backing for such an operation. Fewer
than three-in-ten (27%) say they would favor military action against
Baghdad if the allies do not go along, down from 33% in mid-September.
The latest nationwide Pew Research Center survey of 1,751 adults (1,305
registered voters), conducted October 17-27, shows that massive public
interest in the sniper attacks in the Washington D.C. area has
overshadowed the debate over war in Iraq. Nearly two-thirds of the public
(65%) followed news about the sniper case very closely, making it the top
news story of the year. While a majority (53%) tracked the Iraq debate
very closely, that is down from 60% in early October.
Half
of Democrats Now Oppose War
The decline in public support for using force against Iraq is evident
among all demographic and political groups, but the decrease has been
particularly noteworthy among African-Americans. Just three-in-ten (31%)
support military action today, down 12 percentage points since early
October. Support also has slipped among liberals, people age 65 and older,
residents of the Northeast and those with less than a high school diploma
(down at least 11 points each).
The falloff in support for military action has been comparable among
Democrats and Republicans (nine points and seven points, respectively).
But a majority of Democrats (51%) now oppose using force to oust Saddam,
while 40% favor military action. In early October, Democrats supported
military action, 49%-43%.
While majorities of every other age group back military action, those age
65 and older, on balance, are opposed. Nearly half (47%) oppose military
action, while just 39% are supportive. And there continues to be a gender
gap over taking action against Iraq with men more supportive than women of
using force against Saddam (59%-50%).
Bush Making the Case?
In
September, President Bush made significant progress in explaining his case
for military action in Iraq to the American public, but the new poll
indicates that, if anything, he has lost ground in this effort since then.
The public is split over whether Bush has clearly explained the U.S.
stakes in Iraq 48% say he has, while 45% disagree.
Last month, following Bush's well-received speeches at the United Nations
and for the commemoration of the 9/11 anniversary, a 52% majority thought
Bush had presented a clear rationale for using force, while just 37% said
he had not. The perception that Bush is not making a clear case for war
has increased among all demographic groups.
Leading Worries: Chemical Attacks,
Casualties
Americans express a number of
concerns over the possible consequences of military action, including the
use of chemical or biological weapons against U.S. troops, high casualties
among U.S. troops or Iraqi civilians, increased terrorism against the
U.S., the difficulty of stabilizing Iraq after a war, and the specter of
all-out war in the Middle East. Only 17% of the public is not worried a
"great deal" about at least one of these potential problems, and
over a quarter (27%) are worried about five or all six.
Americans
today are much more worried about the possibility that war with Iraq might
lead to increased terrorism in the U.S. than was the case in 1991 when
this question was first asked (51% now worry a great deal, compared with
33% in January 1991 after the war began). There is also somewhat greater
concern about the prospect of a large number of Iraqi civilian casualties
(40% now worry a great deal, compared with 33% in 1991). By contrast,
concern about American casualties while high is nonetheless lower
than in 1991. Currently, 52% worry a great deal that U.S. forces might
sustain a lot of casualties in a war with Iraq; in 1991, 57% worried a
great deal about this.
Concern about the spread of war throughout the region is also on the minds
of many Americans, with 46% of respondents saying they worry a great deal
about all-out war in the Middle East. And another 43% worry a great deal
that it will take a long time to stabilize Iraq after the war is over. The
Pew Research Center's early October poll found 60% of the public
supportive of a major U.S. effort to rebuild Iraq if there is a war and
establish a stable government there.
Opponents Have Many Concerns
When it comes to the threat of chemical or biological attacks against U.S.
forces, supporters of military action are nearly as likely to be very
worried (59%) as war opponents (62%). But on other issues there is a
larger gap. Just under half (46%) of those in favor of war in Iraq worry a
great deal about heavy U.S. casualties and an increased risk of terrorism.
Six-in-ten war opponents worry a great deal about these problems. And
supporters are significantly less concerned about the conflict spreading
throughout the Middle East (38%), the difficulty of stabilizing Iraq (34%)
or the prospect of large numbers of Iraqi civilian casualties (30%). |
